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Thursday, May 28, 2009

Recession: Malaysiawaves Has Warned About It's Coming Since Last March 2009

That's right. In March 2009 i wrote an article entitled "Stimulus Package or Rescue Package?. Either way we should never trust UMNO ".

In it Malaysiawaves have warned of an impending recession on the horizon.

A recent report by Malaysiakini entitled "First quarter -6.2%, recession looms" states that Malaysia is heading towards a technical recession.

I quote:


""We are almost completing the second quarter and we see that the export sectors and export demand continue to remain weak and the environment is still challenging," she said.

Two successive quarters of negative economic growth represent a technical recession.".

However, Zeti Abdul Aziz is also quoted as saying that the economy will gather pace in the second half of the year. She says:

""In the third quarter we will see a significant improvement taking place and in the fourth quarter we have a higher degree of confidence that we will have positive growth," she told a press conference."

I wonder what she meant by that. To me it doesn't sound very promising. I'd rather trust the MIER outlook which says:

"The recovery from the current crisis will be difficult compared to previous ones because the scale has reached global proportions. It will take time and huge resources to revive the deeply entangled US financial sector, while policy options are running out. The weak external sector will impede a faster recovery, and the lower commodity prices are not helping either. Banks are becoming more cautious, limiting the flow of funds to firms. Domestic demand would be shored up by fiscal pump-priming and easier monetary policy, providing a partial cushion to the sagging Malaysian economy. The services sector will be the pillar of strength amidst a glum manufacturing sector. It is almost certain that Malaysia's growth will slide into a technical recession in the first half of '09, as it takes the hit from the knock-on effects of a flagging global economy."


Malaysiawaves Mentioned About Impending Recession Since Last March

Last March, I quoted from Jabatan Statistik Negara and they said:

"Current movements of the leading components showed that there is no clear indication for the Leading Index (LI) to grow consistently upward in the months ahead. Supported by continuous decline in the Coincident Index (CI), these provide signals that economy is likely moving towards an economic recession.”

What's important is that the current BN government is not capable of turning this country around and have to rely on the ability of big governments to turn our own economy.

What's important is that poor countries like Indonesia are not heading towards recession and will register strong growth in the next half of the year. Therefore, there is no reason for Malaysia to be in recession despite earlier boast by our leaders that Malaysia was not involved in the Sub Prime Mortgage plauging the Western economies, unlike Singapore.

But, why is it that Malaysia is heading towards a recession, i wonder. Could it be that the corruption problem in Malaysia has not subside and in fact worsen?
I think if the corruption problem was put in check, Malaysia should be in driving seat and expanding at this point. After all, Malaysia is not involved in the Sub Prime Mortgage crisis that put Western economies in the slammer.

Tulang Besi


15 comments:

Anonymous said...

Ha ha. So TB is now an economic expert that the entire Malaysia need to be warned by him about the coming economic recession.

What else? Predicting the full blown economic recovery after PR take over the government?

p.s. Even stray cats at my backyard know the economic recession is coming

Tulang Besi said...

I never said i am an economic expert, but one thing for sure, though. I am a bigger expert than u can ever be anon May 28, 2009 3:38 PM

Anonymous said...

Almost anyone can warn. Because warning is very easy. The least is to say 'be careful'. But what is your proposal? Warning without giving any proposal is nothing more than just throwing the stone and then hide behind the finger! Then wait for time to come. If situation takes place akin to the so-called warning, quickly spring to claim "I told you so". If the situation is positive to the governments initiative, slowly and stealthily sweep the statements under the carpet. Remember what the opposition said about the curency pegging in the late 90's? Any of them admit that they were absolutely wrong? None! Piiirah!

CWI MALAYSIA said...

Malaysian economy is very much inter-linked with global capitalism. There is no way for Malaysia to escape from this global economic turmoil. This is the crisis of capitalism.

telur dua said...

They just poured RM12b down the tube in the PKFZ.

Ya, that's RM12,000,000,000.

Anonymous said...

telur dua is mistaken.

Down the tube means woney is wasted and no proper planning.

The PKFZ Rm 12 billion is planned to the last detail and is not wasted. It is definitely in peoples pocket, every single last cent has been stolen.

Thats UMNO and MCA lah, continue voting Barisan Najis and Najis Razak to guarantee your monies line their pockets!

Anonymous said...

TB,

Why you have to blame the BN government for the recession. You think if PAS were to be the government of the day, things will change ka? So powerful, that with your 'tok guru doa' the subprime issue in US would not have happened. Of cause if the Malaysian economy was like Kelantan's now, then nothing to worry lah. No business, no export, itu haram, ini haram, you ulama, you tidak so jadi no problem ma.

You are being phatetic and stop blaming others laaah!

Anonymous said...

Satu masalah terbesar rahman Celcom adalah dia mempunyai persaan UJUB yang amat tinggi...masuk bakul angkat sendiri. baik dalam bidang politik , ataupun ekonomi ataupun apa2 saja....

yeahhh, malaysia Waves has also tell us VERY VER CONFIDENTLY that DUN Perak will be dissolved........

Tulang Besi said...

May 29, 2009 9:19 AM
Delete
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Satu masalah terbesar rahman Celcom adalah dia mempunyai persaan UJUB yang amat tinggi...masuk bakul angkat sendiri. baik dalam bidang politik , ataupun ekonomi ataupun apa2 saja....
.

Ini adalah perkataan dari golongan yang menyedari mereka tiada hujjah lagi untuk menyokong politik sempit dan dangkal mereka.

Setelah dibuktikan berkali2 mereka ini rendah akal

Tulang Besi said...

TB,

Why you have to blame the BN government for the recession. You think if PAS were to be the government of the day, things will change ka?
.

So, we blame who on the mess in our economy?

Or should we just pretend that there is no problem until the entire country goes down the toilet?

Anonymous said...

TB said,

"So, we blame who on the mess in our economy?"

In the first place, there is nobody to be blamed. The crisis we are facing now is the sudden drop in 'demand' for our products. It's the fact that if the US sneezed, the asian countries like Malaysia would already got the fever.

Cukuplah menabur fitnah sesama Islam. BERTAUBAT LAGI BAIK!

Tulang Besi said...

In the first place, there is nobody to be blamed. The crisis we are facing now is the sudden drop in 'demand' for our products. It's the fact that if the US sneezed, the asian countries like Malaysia would already got the fever.

Cukuplah menabur fitnah sesama Islam. BERTAUBAT LAGI BAIK!
.

So the fact that Indonesia didn't need to underwent a techical recession means...?

UMNO people deliberately deactivates part of their brains in order to continue supporting UMNO.

Anonymous said...

TB,

Err...you warned since March 2009 ??? That's barely 2 months ago and every average guy on the street has already known that we were sliding steadily into a technical recession ever since late last year.

So what is there for you to brag about? That you're 'bigger expert' than bla bla....jangan bikin malu

Unless lah ..if it was a typo and you eman that you have been telling about about its coming since March 2007. Then you'll have something that we can admire.

Tulang Besi said...


May 29, 2009 4:24 PM
Delete
Anonymous Anonymous said...

TB,

Err...you warned since March 2009 ??? That's barely 2 months ago and every average guy on the street has already known that we were sliding steadily into a technical recession ever since late last year.
.

So why do we need economists then?

Why don't we just hire average guy on the street to run our Bank NEgara?

Anonymous said...

Aku harap hampa jangan dok menari
ikut rentak UMNO, Barua-barua tu memang macam tu , sebab hobi depa suka bagi PAS pecah.

Aku nak sanggah TULANG BESI ni pasai apa hang tuduh Ust NASA macam tu. Hang ingat Ust NASA dok
terhegeh-hegeh pi bincang dgn UMNO ka? KALAU TAK TAHU CERITA SEBENAR JANGAN DOK FITNAH UST NASA.

AKu harap hampa dapat undi Calon yang hampa fikir terbaik.
Usah Gentar Dato Husam
Usah Gusar Ust Nasa
Tabik Spring kat Bang Mat Sabu

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