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Wednesday, June 16, 2010

Rancangan Malaysia Ke 10: Angan-Angan Mat Jenin Najib Tun Razak

Pembentengan Rancangan Malaysia ke 10 oleh Najib Tun Razak baru-baru ini tidak dapat menyakinkan ahl-ahli ekonomi di Malaysia. Malahan, tiada satu pun akhbar-akhbar Cina yang memuji rancangan tersebut. Akhbar-akhbar Cina sendiri rata-rata tidak memuji Rancangan Malaysia ke 10 tajaan Najib Tun Razak ini.

Yang jelasnya, perancangan Najib dalam RMK10 ini adalah umpama angan-angan Mat Jenin. Bunyi gah tapi hakikatnya ia tidak mampu dicapai oleh sebuah pemerintahan yang korup dan penuh rasuah seperti UMNO dan Najib Tun Razak.

Bekas Pengarah Eksekutif MIER, Tan Sri Mohammad Arif memberi petunjuk yang jelas mengapa kita boleh kata rancangan Najib ini bak angan-angan Mat Jenin. Secara amnya, ada dua hujjah yang kuat dari Tan Sri Mohammad Ariff:

1.0 Untuk menjayakan RMK10 ini, Najib mengatakan ekonomi Malaysia perlu tumbuh sekitar 6% setahun. Namun, mengikut Tan Sri Mohd Arif, ini adalah mustahil memandangkan ini memerlukan kadar pertumbuhan pelaburan sebanyak 12.1% setahun mulai tahun depan. Sedangkan di bawah RMK9, kadar pertumbuhan pelaburan cuma 2% setahun. Menjadikan harapan 12.1% ini seperti angan-angan Mat Jenin
2.0 “Foreign Direct Investment”(FDI) juga cuma mencatatkan pertumbuhan sekadar purata 1% setiap tahun (semenjak 1997). Bagaimana hendak mencapai kadar pertumbuhan ekonomi 6% kalau FDI hanya berkembang 1% setahun?

Hujjah yang diberikan oleh Tony Pua juga amat membimbangkan. RMK10 ini amat hampir dengan model ekonomi yang dibawa Mahathir pada tahun 80’an. Apa yang kita lihat, model ekonomi tajaan Mahathir berakhir dengan kegagalan dan hampir kesemua projek Mahathir rugi dan terpaksa diselamatkan dengan wang rakyat.

Negara tidak mampu lagi untuk menanggung kerugian berbillion-billion ringgit seperti zaman Mahathir dahulu. Kalau berlaku lagi kerugian seperti itu, nescaya Malaysia akan bangkrap.

Perlu kita ingat, Idris Jala telah menyatakan bahawa hutang Malaysia amat tinggi yakni 53% dari hasil negara. Malahan, kalau Malaysia gagal mengurangkan subsidi, Malaysia akan bangkrap pada tahun 2019.

Ertinya, sekiranya kita gagal mencapai pertumbuhan ekonomi 6% tajaan Najib, nescaya kita akan bangkrap dalam kadar yang segera.

RMK10 tajaan Najib ini bukan sahaja angan-angan kosong, malahan berpotensi membuat negara kita bangkrap sebelum 2019.

Tulang Besi

10MP fails to impress economists Sat, 12 Jun 2010 12:28

By Stephanie Sta Maria
KUALA LUMPUR: The 10th Malaysia Plan (10MP) yesterday came under scrutiny of three economists who lauded its acknowledgment of the country's stumbling blocks but lamented its initiatives to tackle them.
At a dialogue jointly organised by the Malaysian Economic Association and the Faculty of Economics and Administration, Universiti Malaya, the trio cited a few initiatives that have set off alarm bells in their heads.
DAP chief economist, Tony Pua, called the plan “tired” and noted that it contains many similarities to past plans. His main concern, however, lay with the “shadow” of the New Economic Policy (NEP) which he said is cast over the 10MP.
“The NEP characteristic in the 10MP is the 30% Bumiputera quota, which, in fact, was left out of the New Economic Model (NEM),” he said. “The problem is not the quota itself but the danger that such a quota would prevent this community from moving ahead because it doesn't distinguish between the rich and poor Bumiputera.”
“If a needs-basis is used instead, then all poor Bumiputera are assured of assistance. But when you dilute it with a specific quota for one race, the better-off of the race (Bumiputeras) are able to get a larger chunk of government benefits."
The PJ Utara MP noted that this contradiction also extends to the NEM in terms of the government's move to increase competitiveness, meritocracy, transparency and getting value for money from government projects.
He questioned whether a project will now be awarded based on the above-mentioned criteria or on fulfilling the 30% Bumiputera quota.
“This is a major dilemma that will play out throughout the next five years and affect out economic performance,” he said. “I see the 10MP mirroring the model of the late 1980s where many mega projects were launched which ultimately had to be bailed out by the government.”
“If we repeat the same cycle without implementing measures to ensure we get the best value for money from these projects, then we may face another crisis and this time the government may not have enough funds for a bailout. I've seen many mega projects and subsidies being awarded to big corporations this year and I don't see the change that the NEM is calling for. ”
“Our problem now is two-pronged. The first is implementing everything in the 10MP and the second is having the political will to enforce those changes. At this point, I'm worried that the latter is missing and I hope to be proven wrong for Malaysia's sake.”
Extremely tall order
Former executive director for the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research, Professor Mohammad Ariff, zeroed in on Malaysia's ambition of becoming a high-income nation. According to him, the 6% growth per annum outlined in the 10MP is an extremely tall order.
“The 10MP takes us on the path of achieving Vision 2020,” he said. “Vision 2020 envisaged that Malaysia would have a per capita income of US$20,000 by 2020 but the financial crisis hit and and the economy slowed. Today, we need at least a 7% growth rate to even reach the US$17,000 per capita income by 2020.”
“The 6% targeted growth means that investments must grow at 12.5% per annum. But during the Ninth Malaysia Plan, investment growth only stood at 2% so this is a huge leap and I'm not sure if it's possible.”
“Foreign direct investment (FDI) has only been growing at 1% per annum, which pales in comparison to China's 10% and Singapore's 9%,” he added. “Our FDI is practically crawling! It's a far cry from when we were recording 9.1% growth before the Asian financial crisis. Something is seriously wrong here and the 10MP should be addressing this.”
Prof Ariff also hit out at the government's fondness for throwing huge chunks of funds at the education sector in the hope of boosting it further. He bluntly stated that the main problem with the country's education system is the severe lack of quality teachers.
“In Malaysia, being a teacher is a 'last resort profession', which means there is no passion or interest,” he explained. “We have to start attracting the best brains into this profession the way China does. And it does that by offering very good monetary rewards. In China, being a teacher is first choice because it is the only profession that provides 100% of salary as pension. This motivates people. In Malaysia, we pay peanuts and so we get monkeys.”
Formidable challenge
For Professor Rajah Rasiah, Dean of the Faculty of Economics and Administration, the allocation of subsidies presents a formidable challenge. He noted that the utility of money will be very high for the poor and very low or nil for the middle-income and the wealthy.
“The 10MP refers to providing equal opportunity, but does it really take that stand in its recommendation of mechanisms?” he asked. “Unfortunately, it doesn't”
He said that while the poor will be able to survive and enjoy basic needs, they will not be able to cross the poverty line and contribute to the country's economic growth.
“When these people are out of poverty, they are able to think productively and participate in the process of achieving Vision 2020,” he opined. “But what we currently have is a misallocation of subsidies. Subsidies that are meant for the poor are being enjoyed by everyone, both foreigners and locals. The treatment of social welfare here seems to be one that takes a penny-wise, pound-foolish approach rather than one that is dynamic.”
While he praised the 10MP for recognising the urgent need to quicken GDP growth, he also said that the plan needs greater depth and dynamism in terms of turning its 10 initiatives into reality.


4 comments:

Anonymous said...

alahai..
1.Sapa peduli puak cina!PRU 13 petempuran antara puak cina dan puak melayu!
2.Boleh tenguk angan-angan mat jenin puak cina untuk keputrajaya mimpi atau realiti!
3.Tak taula!!kot-kot Pas sanggup jadi BARUA puak cina tu!!Ala macam terjadi kat Perak dulu tuu!!Zaman Nizar tuuu!!!
4.Tak pernah mengundi!tapi bila tenguk angan-angan puak mat jenin komunis dap tu!!tak sabaq lagi nak mengundi!!
5.Kena ajaqq sikit puak komunis dap ni!!ingat negeri depa kottttt!!!!sedaqla oii!!kawasan majoriti puak hangpa 30-35 kawasan jeee!!
6.TAPI!tak taula kot-kot ada keturunan pak kaduk yang akan bagi kerusi kawasan melayu kat depa!pak kaduk Bn ka!pak kaduk Pr ka!!

Anonymous said...

Fuyoo..

Manusia yang kempunan jawatan bercerita pasal ekonomi. Hebat la TB ni.

TB pun macam mat jenin jugak, berangan-angan nak jadi CEO selepas membantu Hasan Ali, tapi sayang Hasan Ali tk terima TB.

Mula la melalak dalam blog dan serang mana-mana pemimpin PAS yang tk ikut kepala biol TB.

Hahahaha.

Anonymous said...

Its a f*kin CON JOB by Nachibai n co...n nobody believes him anymore...shop keepers r boycotting nachibai's brain far scam rgd gula..n rakyat too feeling mega effects frm higer inflation..time now for rakyat to turun padang n show nachibai da finger..even more dangerous is nachibai is now anjing pariah of united states of bankrupt isreal for support..united bankrupt's main agenda now is to sambung Bush Cheney's economic policies,which r creating war n mayhem by using the army n rogue bankers n hedge funds..look @ 2day's STAR report..Afghanistan has $$1 trillion worth of mineral deposits..n in burma,unites sates of arse has made a u turn n now supports the junta becos burma kaya dgn gemstones,oil n gas,n expensive teak woods..Mlaysia too kaya waat..only 1/2 past chootia mentally bankrupt UMNo is bankrupting this country everyday!!

mat spring said...

Kebanyakan negara mempunyai rancangan 5 tahun masing2. Samada semua yg dirancang tercapai atau tidak sudah menjadi lumrah disebabkan berbagai2 fator. Jika setiap rancangan hendak di labelkan sebagai angan-angan itu hak TB.

Yang baik sekiranya boleh,TB hubungi kerajaan dan sendiri berikan rancangan 5 tahun mengikut kebijaksanaan TB. Kalau boleh lagi,semua dasar negara TB yg cadangkan lepas tu tengok siapa lebih bijak...

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