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Friday, January 28, 2011

TENANG: BN Menang Besar, Harga RON95 Naik Lagi??

NOTA EDITOR: Masih ingatkah kita Galas. Sebaik BN diisytihar menang dgn bertambah majoriti di Galas, Najib telah menaikkan harga minyak menyebabkan semua harga barang naik melambung sekarang ini.

Bagi Tulang Besi, kalau BN menang besar di Tenang, perkara yang sama akan berlaku sekali lagi. Tulang Besi bersetuju dengan artikel Wong Chin Huat di bawah.

Tenang penentu harga petrol RON95?
Jumaat, 28 Januari 2011 15:38 BlogMaster



Dua hari sebelum hari pengundian PRK Galas dan Batu Sapi, iaitu pada 2 November 2010, kerajaan mengumumkan kenaikan harga minyak RON97 sebanyak 5 sen perliter, kepada RM2.15. Menaikkan harga barang menjadi sesuatu yang pantang sebelum pilihan raya.

Ironinya, keputusan pilihan raya memperlihatkan bahawa bukan sahaja pengundi tidak rasa tersinggung, malah BN memperolehi undi majoriti yang lebih banyak di kedua-dua kawasan, sebahagian besarnya mungkin disebabkan faktor tempatan. Ia memberi lampu hijau kepada kerajaan BN untuk mendakwa bahawa rakyat merestui keputusan kerajaan untuk mengurangkan subsidi.

Selepas satu bulan, kerajaan BN yang mendapat galakan daripada rakyat menaikkan harga RON97 sebanyak 15 sen lagi, kemudian melanjutkan kenaikan harga kepada RON95, diesel, gas dan gula. Pada 5 Januari 2011, harga minyak RON97 dinaikkan kepada RM2.40, bersamaan kenaikan 30 sen perliter dalam tempoh dua bulan, atau kadar kenaikan 14%.

Maka, PRK Tenang bakal membawa dua kesan utama. Pertama, tarikh pilihan raya umum. Kedua, perubahan harga barang. Struktur pengundi Tenang mengikut kaum adalah Melayu (sedikit lebih kurang daripada 50%), Cina (38%), India dan lain-lain (12%), tidak jauh daripada nisbah populasi pengundi peringkat negara.

Jadi, meskipun Johor merupakan kubu BN, dan secara umumnya menganggap UMNO bakal menang dalam PRK Tenang, tetapi kedua-dua BN dan PRK masih berhempas pulas - kerana melihat ia sebagai pertarungan awal sebelum PRU ke-13. Seandainya BN menang, maka ia akan terus mendesak selangkah ke depan. Sebaliknya, jikalau BN menang tipis, maka PR akan mendakwa sentimen tsunami politik 8 Mac 2008 belum menyurut.

Kemenangan besar BN akan mengundang kenaikan harga

Sudah tentunya tarikh PRU bakal memberi kesan kepada perubahan harga barang. Jikalau langkah PRU semakin hampir, maka harga barang akan melonjak hanya selepas pilihan raya. Sebaliknya, jikalau PRU tidak diadakan segera, maka harga barang mungkin dinaikkan dahulu supaya perbelanjaan kerajaan dijimatkan, sementara rakyat menyesuaikan diri dengan kadar kenaikan tersebut.

Untuk menyimpulkan kesannya terhadap tarikh PRU dan harga barang, PRK Tenang mungkin mempunyai tiga kesudahan.

Pertama, BN menang besar, malah melebihi sokongan pada tahun 2004. Ia mungkin memberangsangkan BN untuk mengadakan PRU sebelum Jun tahun ini (mungkin serentak dengan pilihan raya negeri Sarawak). Jadi, kenaikan harga lantaran pengurangan subsidi mungkin berlaku selepas pertengahan tahun ini.

Kedua, BN memperolehi keputusan yang lebih baik daripada 8 Mac 2008, namun gagal mengembalikan sokongan yang diperolehi pada PRU tahun 2004. Jadi, BN tidak berani untuk mengadakan PRU dengan segera. Dalam keadaan ini, kenaikan harga barang mungkin berlaku secara berperingkat. Kerajaan mengurangkan defisit, sementara rakyat menyesuaikan diri dengan keadaan - untuk mengurangkan impak inflasi terhadap BN dalam pilihan raya.

Ketiga, BN menang tipis atau kecundang. Bukan sahaja PRU terpaksa ditunda untuk menunggu keadaan ekonomi pulih, malah "subsidy rationalization" akan diperlahankan langkahnya.

Selepas krisis Greek, adalah menjadi sesuatu yang "wajib" untuk kerajaan mengurangkan subsidi di negara merata dunia. Bezanya, pendekatan dan pakej pengurangan subsidi. Langkah pertama kerajaan Ireland, Britain dan Sepanyol mengurangkan subsidi adalah pengurangkan gaji menteri kabinet dan pegawai kanan, untuk menunjukkan "berat sama dipikul". Lebih penting, jikalau langkah pengurangan subsidi atau perbelanjaan kebajikan itu membebankan golongan bawah, maka kerajaan harus mengemukakan pakej untuk meringankannya.

Jikalau BN tewas atau terkejut dengan keputusan PRK Tenang, maka agak mustahil untuk harga minyak RON 97 dinaikkan dalam tempoh enam ini, malah subsidi kepada barangan kawalan yang lain juga tidak akan dikurangkan segera. Sekurang-kurangnya kerajaan akan merasai bahang tekanan, dan perlu menawarkan sesuatu sebaliknya, misalnya penurunan harga pengangkutan awam sebagai pampasan kepada rakyat. Malah, pengurangan gaji menteri, pegawai kanan kerajaan, elaun pelancongan dan sebagainya, mungkin perlu dimasukkan sebagai agenda.

Jadi, mampukah 14,592 orang pengundi di kawasan Tenang membantu rakyat di seluruh negara untuk menghalang kenaikan harga barang?


Oleh: Wong Chin Huat - Pengkaji politik dan kolumnis MerdekaReview.

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

DAVOS-Sarkozy to JP Morgan chief: Banks "defied common sense"

Thu Jan 27, 2011 1:43pm EST

* French president says banks need tough regulation

* Attacks bankers' behaviour

* JP Morgan's Dimon says "unproductive" to bash banks

(Adds Barclays' Bob Diamond, Bernanke comments)

By Lisa Jucca and Paul Taylor

DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 27 (Reuters) - French President Nicolas Sarkozy clashed with the head of U.S. bank JP Morgan Chase (JPM.N) at the Davos forum on Thursday, telling him bankers had done things which defied common sense.

Jamie Dimon, credited with having steered JP Morgan through financial turmoil in 2007-08, had earlier in the day lashed out at persistent bank bashing nearly three years after the global credit crisis began, saying it was "unproductive and unfair".

But when he rose at a later session of the World Economic Forum to ask Sarkozy to get the G20 to avoid overregulation of banks, the French president launched into a broadside accusing financiers of behaviour that he said had caused the crisis.

Anonymous said...

"The world has paid with tens of millions of unemployed, who were in no way to blame and who paid for everything," Sarkozy said to Dimon. "It caused a lot of anger."

The French leader also renewed his call for a financial transaction tax to fund development but acknowledged that many G20 countries opposed such a levy. He suggested a small pioneer group of states might go ahead with a tiny levy or some other form of innovative financing to lead the way.

Dimon praised governments for intervening to save the financial system in 2008. But he said the G20 group of major economies, which Sarkozy chairs this year, should take a deep breath before imposing more regulation.

"Too much is too much," he said.

The outspoken Dimon had earlier told a separate panel not all lenders made the same mistakes in the run-up to the crisis.

"Not all banks are the same and I just think that this constant refrain 'bankers, bankers, bankers' is just unproductive and unfair. People should just stop doing that."

Anonymous said...

He echoed comments by Barclays (BARC.L) CEO Bob Diamond, who told a UK parliamentary committee this month that "the period of remorse and apologies for banks" needed to be over.
MARKET OR MADHOUSE?

Sarkozy was having none of it.

"The world was stupefied to see one of five biggest U.S. banks collapse like a house of cards," he told a plenary session of the Davos Forum.

"We saw that for the last 10 years, major institutions in which we thought we could trust had done things which had nothing to do with simple common sense. That's what happened."

The United States government spent hundred of billions of dollars of public money to bail out financial institutions, after the dramatic failure of Lehman Brothers in 2008, through the controversial Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP). "Not all banks needed that TARP. Not all banks would have failed," Dimon said at the earlier session. "A lot of banks were stabilising the problem -- JP Morgan bought Bear Stearns because the U.S. asked us to."

Anonymous said...

However, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told a U.S. investigative panel last year that the credit crisis surpassed the Great Depression of the 1930s in severity and put 12 of the 13 most important U.S. financial firms at risk of failure.

"If you look at the firms that came under pressure in that period ... only one ... was not at serious risk of failure," he said in comments disclosed earlier on Thursday.

"Even Goldman Sachs (GS.N), we thought there was a real chance that they would go under," he said. [ID:nN27132640]

Dimon said his biggest current concern was that "bad policy" could make things worse as the banking industry was on the mend.

Sarkozy said bankers were wrong to resist tough rules. "There is an ocean between flexibility and the scandal we saw," he said. "So if people present me as obsessed with regulation, it's because there is a need for regulation.

Anonymous said...

"I don't contest the principle of securitisation, but when one offshore country guaranteed 700 times its GDP, are we in the market economy or in a madhouse?"

Finally, the French president took aim at bank bonuses.

"Bonuses don't bother me, provided there are also ... draw-downs when there are losses. When things don't work, you can never find anyone responsible. Those who got bumper bonuses for seven years should have made losses in 2008 when things collapsed." (Reporting by Paul Taylor and Lisa Jucca, writing by Michael Stott, editing by Mike Peacock)

Anonymous said...

IF UMNO WIN TENANG, THE PM WILL RAISE THE PRICE OF RON95 BECUASE THEY NOW HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO OPPRESS THE RAKYATS FURTHER, THE MORE THEY WIN THE MORE STRENGTH THEY FELT TO BE MORE CORRUPTED AS THEY HAVE DONE IN THE PAST 53 YEARS.
MCA IS BANKRUPT OF TALENTS AS THEY HAVE TO ELECT A PORN ARTIST AS PRESIDENT TO REPRESENT THE PARTY HOW SHORT SIGHTED ARE THEIR DELEGATES WITH OKT'S AID WHO IS ORIGINALLY FROM TEAM A WHO JUMPED INTO THE FRAY IN THE LAST MINUTES DEPRIVED MCA OF A CLEAN AND GOOD LEADER IN ONG TEE KEAT WHO WAS FROM TEAM B. SO USE YOUR VOTES WISELY COME GE 13 TO THROW OUT THAT MCA/BN/UMNO ETC AS THEY ARE ONLY GOOD IN CORRUPTIONS AND FIND WAYS TO PROMOTE CORRUPTIONS TO ENRICH THEMSELVES, ONLY, THEY DO NOT CARE FOR THE SUFFERINGS AND DEATHS OF THE RAKYATS UNDER THE CURRENT POLICE-STATE, WHERE THERE WERE TORTURES AND DEATHS BY POLICE AND MACC MURDERERS UNDER THE POLICE AND MACC CUSTODIES. THROW THEM ALL OUT AND TAKE THOSE MURDERERS TO JUSTICE UNDER A NEW CLEAN AND UNTAINTED FEDERAL GOVERNMENT UNDER PR. VOTE WISELY IN ALL ELECTIONS BECAUSE THE FUTURE OF ALL RACES AND RELIGIONS OF MALAYSIANS BE THEY MALAY, CHINESE OR INDIAN OR OTHERS ARE AT STAKE BECAUSE THE CORRUPTED REGIME OF UMNO/BN WILL CONTINUE TO CHEAT, ROB AND PLUNDER WITH MORE SEVERE CORRUPTIONS OF THE NATION'S WEALTH IF THEY ARE TO BE RUNNING THE GOVERNMENT EVEN AFTER 53 YEARS OF CONTINEOUS ABUSE OF POWER AND SUPPRESSION OF THE PRESS AND OPPRESSION TO THE RAKYATS AND HAVE THROWN THE NATION'S WEALTH AWAY LOSING VALUE OF ITS CURRENCY AGAINST SINGAPORE, BRUNEI, HONG KONG, TAIWAN, KOREA AND MOST RECENTLY CHINA, AND SOON VIETNAM AND THAILAND AND CAMBODIA COULD OVERTAKE US. THAT WAS WHAT THEY HAVE HAD TRANFORMED MALAYSIA INTO IN THE PAST 53 YEARS AND IF THERE IS NO CHANGE OF GOVERNMENT, WE OWE OUR GRAND CHILDREN A VERY SERIOUS DEBT AS WE INCURRED THEIR DEBTS FOR THEM AS WE ARE SO STUPID TO SUPPORT A CORRUPTED REGIME FOR 53 + ANOTHER 5 YEARS OF ANOTHER ROUND OF PLUNDER AND OPPRESSION OF OURSELVES THE RAKYATS.

Anonymous said...

RON95 will naik..its not dependent on tenang by elections..why?Gomen dah bangkurap!!Malaysia's ekonomik model is sbased on fuedal anglo pariah money printing debt ridden lanchow CDO!!!Plus pookitaik UMNo r cacat celi zombis!!

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