No Room For Overconfidence in Permatang Pauh

From where I am sitting, the Barisan Nasional will throw everything but the kitchen sink in the upcoming Permatang Pauh by-election.

The last thing that Pakatan Rakyat should do is to have even a trace of overconfidence when facing the upcoming Permatang Pauh by-election. I may sound like a party spoiler but I feel I have to.

Which is why the report on Malaysian Insider (Anwar does not expect tough fight in by-election) bothers me very much. I always advocate the best way to face a by election is to come in as an underdog, despite the odds favoring you 100 to 1. It wont hurt you for thinking that way and it will guarantee sucsess.

Plus making statements like above might introduce apathy among the campaigners, supporters and more importantly, voters. The last thing we want is for voters not coming back to vote on the count that they think victory is for sure.

That’s what happened to Kelantan in 2004. Everyone and their uncles were so sure of victory that most of PAS voters didn’t bother to come back to vote. As a result, PAS nearly lost the state and only managed to hold on to it by the skin of their teeth.

I was told that everyone in the machinery was on cruise control mode while BN was on overdrive mode. And nearly did the BN managed to wrest the state.

In Terengganu the situation is the same and the resulting outcome is PAS losing the state in 2004. And just about every PAS members in Terengganu was caught by surprise of the result. But by then it was all too late.

So, I call upon Pakatan leaders to stop making statement leading to feelings of apathy and overconfidence among the voters and party activist. We must make statements that is towards ensuring victory like the need for everyone to come out to vote in numbers, to beware of “phantom voters” and to report them anytime they see one, to put as much effort as possible etc. We do not want the Permatang Pauh by-election to be a flash in the pan for Pakatan Rakyat.

From where I am sitting, the Barisan Nasional will throw everything but the kitchen sink in the upcoming Permatang Pauh by-election.

Barisan Nasional Still Controls The Federal Government

Everyone must never forget that Barisan Nasional still controls the Federal Government. This short statement translates into:

1. Total control of Suruhanjaya Pilihanraya, which means they can commit electoral fraud as they will
2. Total control of the Police: Which means the Barisan Nasional machinery has free reign of everything without fear of repercussions. They will have more liberty as compared to our machinery
3. Total control of the Army: You can bet that the MIO will conduct ceaseless intelligence activated which will then be fed into the Barisan Nasional campaign team. And u can be sure that UNDI POS will go to them in the 90%.
4. They have control of the mass media: Which means they can mesmerized the older generations and their ability to create confusion and anger among the voters must be watched closely. They can also effectively utilize issues in ways that is difficult for us to do.
5. They control Jabatan Kebajikan Masyarakat: Which means they have upper-hand with poor voters
6. They control Jabatan Kerjaraya: Although in the case of Permatang Pauh, such instrument may not be effective considering all development activities must get consent from Local Councils
7. They control MOF: Which means the funds they have to face this election is almost limitless. All they have to do is to ensure these funds reach the voters in the form of bribery and direct vote buying. In the last election, much of these funds was stuck at the mid-level which resulted in the number of votes bought to be low.
8. They control just about every govt agencies that can be very instrumental in getting the necessary swing they need for the election

Potential Issues To Be Played By UMNO/BN

Can be divided into two types:

1. Personal attacks against Anwar
2. Racial issues with regards to Malay Rights considering Permatang Pauh is 70% Malay

On the part of personal attacks on Anwar, I don’t think I need to elaborate. Potential issues are:

1. Anwar is a US Agent (Refer to my article: Jika Anwar Ibrahim Agen Amerika, Bagaimana Pula Dengan Najib/UMNO/BN?)
2. Anwar is a sodomizer
3. Anwar has affair with Azmin’s wife, Syamsidar
4. Anwar has numerous affairs with so many people
5. Even PAS doesn’t trust Anwar anymore
6. Anwar will betray the Malays

On the second part, UMNO will not hold anything back when playing the racial card. They will highlight everything that Penang State Government has done that is deemed to be anti Malays and Anti Ketuanan Melayu and Anti DEB.

NOTE: This will be very difficult to rebut and Pakatan Rakyat must anticipate such attacks from NOW!!!!. Issues like this is very effective and if not properly neutralized, it will carry catastrophic effects.

I fear the second part more than the first. I hope BN will go personal on Anwar more than playing the race card. It’s easier for us to fight the personal attacks on Anwar then fighting Penang State Govt record on Malays and DEB.

Tulang Besi

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